(This list goes in reverse order of the Half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings and ADP per FantasyPros.com, not in order of my preference)
#1: Chris Thompson (ECR: 133; ADP: N/A)
Chris Thompson is insanely under-valued in drafts right now and is by far my biggest late-round running back target. Over the last three seasons, despite very poor QB play, balls thrown to Thompson have a completion percentage of 73%. This is a very similar completion percentages to those of other fantasy-relevant 3rd-down RBs like Tarik Cohen (76%) and James White (74%), both going earlier than Thompson. In 2017, in over the 10 games he played, Thompson was on pace for 206 fantasy points in half-ppr scoring. That would have been good enough to be the half-ppr RB14 in 2019, showing he certainly has the talent to be a starting-level fantasy contributor.
While Thompson does have talent, the real draw this year is his opportunity. With the cutting of Fournette, Chris Thompson should have the chance to do a lot in Duval. He certainly has a secure role as the 3rd-down back, and due to his great relationship with Jay Gruden, Jags OC, and the uncertainty about the talent/availability of other Jacksonville running backs, I would not be surprised if he saw a fair share of work on 1st and 2nd down as well. Being behind in games also results in more playing time for the pass-catching RB, and, this might be a hot take, but something tells me Jacksonville is going to be trailing in a lot of games this season.
Along with that, Jacksonville's QB Gardner Minshew is probably better than any other QB Thompson has played with in his career (which, to be honest, is not saying that much), and Jacksonville likes to target their running backs significantly more than Washington does. If Leonard Fournette, who is not as good of a pass-catching back as Thompson, saw 100 targets last year, I am sure Thompson will see enough looks to be fantasy-relevant. In my opinion, he is probably a top-24 half/full ppr RB as long as he is healthy.
I know, I know, Chris Thompson is injury-prone; I won't deny that. However, while he as only played one 16-game season in the past 5 years, he also has never played less than 10 games in a season over that time frame. Also, just to make this clear, his consensus draft rank is 133 at the moment and his ADP is probably around the same. That is absurdly low! If I can get a starting-level running back for the first 4 games, much less for 10 or 16, at any point after the 11th round then I am beyond happy with the pick. If he does get injured, you can probably pick up someone on waivers who has about the same value as whoever else you wanted with your 11th or 12th round pick.
#2: Brandin Cooks (ECR: 88; ADP 96)
If I did rank these players in order of preference, Brandin Cooks would probably be #1 (hence his picture at the top). I have no idea how Brandin Cooks is being ranked or drafted as low as he is right now. Like am I missing something? Let me know with a comment or a message. In the past six years, Brandin Cooks has been a top 15 receiver in all scoring formats five times. Let me say that again, HE HAS BEEN A TOP 15 RECEIVER IN FIVE OUT OF THE LAST 6 YEARS!!! That is an insanely elite track record that can only be matched by the highest-drafted WRs. He is being drafted at WR37!
Now to be fair, the one year he finished outside the top 15 was last year, but, last year's dip in production was mostly due to the fact he was dealing with an injury and was schemed out of the offense at the end of the year. Right now he is healthy and on a different team which will use him a whole lot more. Oh, did I mention that his new team's QB is a big upgrade from his old QB? Yeah, come at me Goff truthers! Did I also mention that his new team just lost a WR who saw an average of 162 yearly targets over the last three years? Brandin Cooks is immensely talented and is now in a situation where he will get a lot of opportunities to put up big numbers. Even if Will Fuller manages to say healthy, they can both be good. I know people are also concerned about rostering him because he is "injury prone", but Cooks has played in 94 of 96 (98%) regular season games over the last six seasons, so I do not think that is a particularly accurate detraction. In addition, I love to target Cooks in dynasty leagues (ECR: 91; ADP:101). He is only 26 years old and has an amazing track record, but, for some reason, people are drafting him like his best years are behind him.
#3: A.J. Brown (ECR: 39; ADP: 35)
I am high on A.J. Brown for one very simple reason: the guy is REALLY, REALLY good at football. Right now, Brown is consensus ranked as the WR16 and drafted as the WR15. While I do see a WR12-WR18 as the most likely outcome for Brown on the year, I also feel that his ceiling is so much higher and his floor is not much lower, making Brown a must-have at this price.
A.J. Brown is the type of player who has the potential to single-highhandedly win people fantasy titles this year. I don't think you need me to tell you how amazing A.J. Brown was playing at the end of his rookie season, but I will do it anyways. In the last 6 regular-season games, he had 115.2 points on 39 targets in half-ppr. That is a 16-game pace of 307 points on 104 targets, which would be more points than Michael Thomas (299) on 81 less passes! Keep in mind, he was on this pace for over a third of the season, not an insignificant amount of time.
That being said, I do not think Brown will be the #1 overall WR this year. It is basically impossible that A.J. Brown maintains the insane points per target numbers of last year (2.26 pts/tar), but, I also doubt his targets will be any lower than 104, the pace he was on in the last 6 games. With over 100 targets and the talent he has, being able to generate separation, catch tough passes, run with the ball in space, and make big plays, I have no idea how Brown finishes lower than WR18, giving him a solid floor. In addition, if he sees significantly more targets this year or somehow maintains his absurd efficiency, he has a clear path to being one of, if not the, best wide receiver in fantasy football. Low risk, very, very high reward.
#4: Aaron Jones (ECR: 22; ADP: 22)
To be honest, I do not feel like I am particularly high on Aaron Jones, rather I feel like everyone else is way too low on him. I understand why there is concern, Jones was inconsistent from week to week, his 19 total-TD's are due for some regression, and the rookie A.J. "thunder thighs" Dillon could potentially eat into the GB carries this year. Despite these concerns, I think there is one very obvious fact everyone is missing: he was the RB2 overall last year in half-ppr, and he is being ranked/drafted as the 22nd player overall in half-ppr (ECR: RB14; ADP: RB12). He does not have to replicate what he did last year to be a value!
When it comes to TD regression, if you removed half of Jones's touchdowns from last year (9.5), he would still have 233.3 fantasy points and be the RB7 overall. Not only that, last year he had his worse yards per carry of his career, 4.6 (career average of 5.0). While he might negatively regress in touchdowns, he may also positively regress in rushing yards. Sure Jones was fairly inconsistent when it came to week-to-week production, but if you have not read my past article, it shows with computer simulation that weekly variance does not affect your chances at winning fantasy titles.
When it comes to the concerns about losing carries, Jones needed only 236 carries to do what he did last year, splitting the workload with Jamaal Williams, whom Jones outperformed. I see no reason why the coaches did not draft Dillon to take some of William's touches rather than those of Jones. This might just be the fallacy of rational coaching talking here, but I could even see Jones getting more carries than 236 if he continues to perform well. All in all, I would just say to stop worrying about Aaron Jones. He is a talented running back in a great situation and is a great pick where he's being taken at, even with a bit of regression.
By: Lawrence Strenger @fantasystatdude
If you enjoyed this article, please share it! The Stat House is just starting up and a larger reader-base will lead to more articles. To say updated on our new articles, please subscribe on our homepage or follow @fantasystatdude on twitter.
If you are interested in contributing your own article to the Stat House, feel free to send us a message located at the bottom of our homepage.
Comments